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Toward rigorous use of expert knowledge in ecological research by Jessica Rhodes, last updated: Jun 22, 2015 08:17 AM
Practicing ecologists who excel at their work (‘‘experts’’) hold a wealth of knowledge. This knowledge offers a wide range of opportunities for application in ecological research and natural resource decision-making. While experts are often consulted ad-hoc, their contributions are not widely acknowledged. These informal applications of expert knowledge lead to concerns about a lack of transparency and repeatability, causing distrust of this knowledge source in the scientific community. Here, we address these concerns with an exploration of the diversity of expert knowledge and of rigorous methods in its use. The effective use of expert knowledge hinges on an awareness of the spectrum of experts and their expertise, which varies by breadth of perspective and critical assessment. Also, experts express their knowledge in different forms depending on the degree of contextualization with other information. Careful matching of experts to application is therefore essential and has to go beyond a simple fitting of the expert to the knowledge domain. The standards for the collection and use of expert knowledge should be as rigorous as for empirical data. This involves knowing when it is appropriate to use expert knowledge and how to identify and select suitable experts. Further, it requires a careful plan for the collection, analysis and validation of the knowledge. The knowledge held by expert practitioners is too valuable to be ignored. But only when thorough methods are applied, can the application of expert knowledge be as valid as the use of empirical data. The responsibility for the effective and rigorous use of expert knowledge lies with the researchers.
Six Common Mistakes in Conservation Priority Setting by Jessica Rhodes, last updated: Jun 22, 2015 08:17 AM
A vast number of prioritization schemes have been developed to help conservation navigate tough decisions about the allocation of finite resources. However, the application of quantitative approaches to setting priorities in conservation frequently includes mistakes that can undermine their authors’ intention to be more rigorous and scientific in the way priorities are established and resources allocated. Drawing on well-established principles of decision science, we highlight 6 mistakes commonly associated with setting priorities for conservation: not acknowledging conservation plans are prioritizations; trying to solve an ill- defined problem; not prioritizing actions; arbitrariness; hidden value judgments; and not acknowledging risk of failure. We explain these mistakes and offer a path to help conservation planners avoid making the same mistakes in future prioritizations.
Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty by Jessica Rhodes, last updated: Jun 22, 2015 08:17 AM
The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.
Moreweb, Mark by mmoreweb, last updated: Jun 18, 2015 08:18 PM
 
Agenda: Connecticut River Pilot Core Team Meeting 06-12-2015 by mmallek, last updated: Jun 18, 2015 02:08 PM
Agenda for June 2015 Core Team Meeting
Partnership benefits two Kentucky landscapes by The Nature Conservancy, last updated: Jun 12, 2015 12:28 PM
The Forecastle Foundation, a 501(c)(3) non-profit dedicated to preserving areas of abundant biodiversity, today begins a new charitable partnership with The Nature Conservancy’s Kentucky Chapter.
Pilgrim, Jay by Matthew Cimitile, last updated: Jun 11, 2015 09:30 AM
 
Connecticut River Pilot Core Team Meeting 06-12-2015 by mmallek, last updated: Jun 09, 2015 03:53 PM
Agenda, notes, and associated files for the June CT Pilot Meeting
Taylor, Maxwell by Matthew Cimitile, last updated: Jun 09, 2015 12:59 PM
 
Marxan Training Resources by Jessica Rhodes, last updated: Jun 08, 2015 01:57 PM
Presentations, agendas, and data for Marxan training session on February 3-4, 2015 at NCTC in Shepherdstown, West Virginia.
Wynn, Anne by Matthew Cimitile, last updated: Jun 08, 2015 11:42 AM
 
Cantillo, Fernanda by Matthew Cimitile, last updated: Jun 08, 2015 09:55 AM
 
LCC Networks by Matthew Cimitile, last updated: Jun 05, 2015 12:05 PM
 
Hydrological modeling for flow-ecology science in the Southeastern United States by Web Editor, last updated: Jun 04, 2015 04:00 PM
Stream flows are essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Integrated modeling approaches assessing the impact of changes in climate, land use, and water withdrawals on stream flows and the subsequent impact of changes in flow regime on aquatic biota at multiple spatial scales are necessary to insure an adequate supply of water for humans and healthy river ecosystems. The combined application of simple, large scale models with more complex, high resolution models has the potential to provide for more robust climate change impact studies, which focus on maintaining a better balance between the availability of water to support aquatic assemblages while conserving water for long-term human needs than using either approach in isolation.
Developing long-term urbanization scenarios for the Appalachian and Gulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks LCCs as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project by Web Editor, last updated: Jun 04, 2015 03:58 PM
Traditional urban growth models are very localized and data-intensive and lack the capability to be applied across large regions, in response to these limitations the North Carolina Cooperative Research Unit began using the USGS SLEUTH urban growth model to develop urbanization scenarios as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP). Extensive modifications of the model framework and calibration were undertaken that resulted in the ability to rapidly develop urbanization scenarios for very large regions, such as the Appalachian and Gulf Coastal Plain Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). This new modeling effort allows LCC’s to address fundamental questions that affect conservation planning over decadal time scales.
Critically evaluating existing methods and supporting a standardization of terrestrial and wetland habitat classification and mapping that includes characterization of climate sensitive systems by Web Editor, last updated: Jun 04, 2015 03:57 PM
This project coordinates with partners to provide a systematic comparison of existing habitat classification and mapping products within the footprint of the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC), a merged and improved map product as far as possible, an evaluation of habitats vulnerable to climate change within the region, and recommendations for needed improvement in habitat mapping products for the future.
Connectivity for Climate Change in the Southeastern United States by Web Editor, last updated: Jun 04, 2015 03:56 PM
Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, changing the dates when birds arrive to breed and when flowers bloom in spring, and shifting the ranges of species as they move to cooler places. One problem for wildlife as their ranges shift is that their path is often impeded – their habitats have become fragmented by agriculture and urbanization, presenting barriers to their migration. Because of this, the most common recommended strategy to protect wildlife as climate changes is to connect their habitats, providing them safe passage. There are great challenges to implementing this strategy in the southeastern U.S., however, because most intervening lands between habitat patches are held in private ownership. We will combine data on key wildlife species and their habitats throughout the southeastern U.S. with new computer modeling technologies that allow us to identify key connections that will be robust to regional and global changes in climate and land use.
Communicating and Using Uncertain Scientific Information in the Production of ‘Actionable Science’ by Web Editor, last updated: Jun 04, 2015 03:54 PM
Conservation practitioners must navigate many challenges to advance effective natural-resource management in the presence of multiple uncertainties. Numerous climatic and ecological changes remain on the horizon, and their eventual consequences are not completely understood. Even so, their influences are expected to impact important resources and the people that depend on them across local, regional, and sometimes global scales. Although forecasts of future conditions are almost always imperfect, decision makers are increasingly expected to communicate and use uncertain information when making policy choices that affect multiple user groups. The degree to which management objectives are met can depend on 1) how critical uncertainties are identified and accounted for, and 2) effective communication among user groups, scientists, and resource managers.
Characterization of spatial and temporal variability in fishes in response to climate change by Web Editor, last updated: Jun 04, 2015 03:52 PM
Predicting population responses to climate change requires an understanding of how population dynamics vary over space and time. For instance, a measured indicator may vary among repeated samples from a single site, from site to site within a lake, from lake to lake, and over time. Although variability has historically been viewed as an impediment to understanding population responses to ecological changes, the structure of variation can also be an important part of the response. In this project, we will build upon recently completed analyses of fish population data in the Great Lakes basin to help predict how spatial and temporal variation in fish populations may respond to climate change and other important drivers.
Bringing people, data, and models together - addressing impacts of climate change on stream temperature by Web Editor, last updated: Jun 04, 2015 03:47 PM
Few previous studies have focused on how climate change may impact headwater systems, despite the importance of these areas for aquatic refugia. The lack of these studies has resulted in the majority of climate impact assessments focusing on conservation of ecological systems at broad levels, and has not focused on turning results into useful and actionable information for managers on the ground. A critical and timely research question is: “What data and modeling frameworks are needed to provide scientists reliable, climate-informed, water temperature estimates for freshwater ecosystems that can assist watershed management decision making?” This research will answer this through two primary activities: 1) gathering and compiling existing stream temperature data within the DOI-Northeast region and subsequent deployment of data loggers to areas where additional data are needed, and 2) an intercomparison of state-of-the-art statistical and deterministic stream temperature models to evaluate their ability to replicate point stream temperature measurements and model scalability to non-gaged sites with the Northeast region.