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Characteristics, distribution and geomorphic role of large woody debris in a mountain stream of the Chilean Andes: The paper presents an analysis of amounts, characteristics and morphological impact of large woody debris (LWD) in the Tres Arroyos stream, draining an old-growth forested basin (9·1 km2) of the Chilean Southern Andes. Large woody debris has been surveyed along a 1·5 km long channel section with an average slope of 0·07 and a general step–pool/cascade morphology. Specific wood storage is very high (656 –710 m3 ha−1), comparable to that recorded in old-growth forested basins in the Pacific Northwest. Half of the LWD elements were located on the active floodplain, and around two-thirds of LWD elements were found in accumula- tions. Different types of log jam were observed, some heavily altering channel morphology (log-steps and valley jams), while others just line the channel edges (bankfull bench jams). Log-steps represent approximately 22% of all steps, whereas the elevation loss due to LWD (log-steps and valley jams) results in 27% loss of the total stream potential energy. About 1600 m3 of sediment is stored in the main channel behind LWD structures, corresponding to approximately 150% of the annual sediment yield. Keywords: large woody debris; channel morphology; valley jams; log-steps; Andes; stream sediment: sediment traps

Do small tributaries function as refuges from floods? A test in a salmonid-dominated mountainous river: Excerpts from the text: On 8–10 August 2003, a powerful typhoon hit Hokkaido Island, Japan, accompanied with heavy rain, which allowed us to investigate the potential role of tributaries as refuges from flooding. We had just completed annual population census in four small tributaries of a river system 1–2 days before the typhoon.... Overall, our results did not support the hypothesis that many large fishes immigrate to small tributaries during floods. ... Despite the lack of evidence of mass movement, our result suggested a few immigrants from the main stem (i.e., juvenile white-spotted charr, sculpin and a few relatively large Dolly Varden). Because more than 100 small tributaries exist in the Shiisorapuchi River (Koizumi 2011), only a few individuals escaping to each tributary should accumulate to a great number enough to re-colonise main stem habitats even if fishes in the main stem were extirpated. Multiple refuges at different spatial scales should increase resistance and ⁄ or resilience of fish populations (Sedell et al. 1990; Pearsons et al. 1992). Thus, the roles of tributaries as refuges would deserve further attention

Seasonal and diel patterns in the migrations of fishes between a river and a floodplain tributary: The population behaviours associated with the migrations of fishes in lowland river ecosystems are amongst the most poorly-understood dispersal mechanisms of temperate freshwater organisms. This study evaluated the influence of four environmental variables (light levels, river discharge, water temperature and water velocity) on the timing, intensity and direction of fish movements between the River Avon (Hampshire, England) and a small floodplain tributary, Ibsley Brook, over a 12-month period. Using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to identify patterns of movement (by groups of species) and the relative strengths of explanatory variables in the data, the probability of fishes migrating between the river and tributary was determined using Bayesian modelling. The intensity and direction of fish movements between the river and tributary varied temporally, both on a diel and seasonal basis, and there were species- and age-specific patterns in behaviour. Diel movements appeared to be triggered by changes in light intensity and brook water velocity, whereas seasonal movements were mostly driven by changes in river discharge and water temperature, particularly those associated with floods. This study emphasises the importance of connectivity in river systems, as fishes migrated in all conditions, but especially during rapidly- rising discharge. ecosystem function; habitat connectivity; habitat fragmentation; habitat use; river discharge; water velocity

Protecting Wildlife Migration Corridors and Crucial Wildlife Habitat in the West: BACKGROUND 1. Large intact and functioning ecosystems, healthy fish and wildlife populations, and abundant public access to natural landscapes are a significant contributing factor to the West's economic and in-migration boom as well as quality of life. Critical wildlife migration corridors and crucial wildlife habitats are necessary to maintain flourishing wildlife populations. . 2. The Western States are particularly and uniquely affected by activity occurring in wildlife migration corridors and crucial wildlife habitats. Western States must also contend with an inter-connected mixture of private, state and federal lands. Migration corridors cross all political boundaries and States need to protect migration corridors on federal land through various state planning documents. 3. Natural resource development, urban development, and maintenance of the existing infrastructures of the West impact wildlife species, their habitats and migration corridors. Western States are increasingly expending limited state funds to participate in federal public land resource management planning as a result of the growing national focus on energy production and independence. States continue to expend scarce funds to protect or mitigate impacts to wildlife resources by energy development. 4. States possess broad trustee, police powers and primacy over fish and wildlife within their borders. With the exception of marine mammals, states retain concurrent jurisdiction even where Congress has directed specific federal authority of fish and wildlife speci

Simulating snowmelt process during rain-on-snow over a semi-arid mountain basin: In the Pacific Northwest of North America, significant flooding can occur during mid-winter rain-on-snow events. Warm, wet Pacific storms caused significant floods in the Pacific Northwest in February 1996, January 1997 and January 1998. Rapid melting of the mountain snow cover substantially augmented discharge during these flood events. An energy-balance snowmelt model is used to simulate snowmelt processes during the January 1997 event over a small headwater basin within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed located in the Owyhee Mountains of southwestern Idaho, U.S.A. This sub-basin is 34% forested 􏰑12% fir, 22% aspen and 66% mixed sagebrush 􏰑primarily mountain big sage- brush)). Data from paired open and forested experimental sites were used to drive the model. Model-forcing data were corrected for topographic and vegetation canopy effects. The event was preceded by cold, stormy conditions that developed a significant snow cover over the sub- basin. The snow cover at sites protected by forest cover was slightly reduced, while at open sites significant snowmelt occurred. The warm, moist, windy conditions during the flooding event produced substantially higher melt rates in exposed areas, where sensible- and latent- heat exchanges contributed 60^90% of the energy for snowmelt. Simulated snow-cover devel- opment and ablation during the model run closely matched measured conditions at the two experimental sites. This experiment shows the sensitivity of snowmelt processes to both climate and land cover, and illustrates how the forest canopy is coupled to the hydrologic cycle in mountainous areas.

Rain on Snow: Little Understood Killer in the North: n October 2003, a severe rain-on-snow (ROS) event killed approximately 20,000 musk-oxen (Figure 1) on Banks Island, which is the westernmost of the Canadian Arctic islands (approximately 380 kilome- ters by 290 kilometers in size). The event reduced the isolated herd by 25% and sig- nificantly affected the people dependent on the herd’s well-being. Because of the sparsity of weather stations in the Arctic and the lack of routinely deployed weather equipment that was capable of accurately sensing the ROS event, its detection largely was based on reports from hunters who were in the affected areas at the time.Such events can significantly alter a fro- zen ecosystem—with changes that often persist for the remainder of a winter—by creating ice layers at the surface of, within, or below the snowpack. The water and ice layers are known to facilitate the growth of toxic fungi, significantly warm the soil surface under thick snowpack, and deter large grazing mammals.

Influence of Timber Harvest on Rain-On-Snow Runoff: A Mechanism for Cumulative Watershed Effects: Rain-on-snow dominates many geomorphological processes in the Pacific Northwest. Wind-aided transfers of heat to snow during rain-on-snow comprise the largest source of heat for snowmelt during rainfall.␣ Recent field research in western. Oregon and western Washington has shown that timber harvest and thinning can increase both snow accumulation and the wind-aided transfers of heat, resulting in higher rates of water delivery to soil during rain-on-snow conditions.␣ Increased rates of water delivery to soil can lead to higher streamflows and to landslides on marginally stable slopes. Because of the magnitude of increase in water delivery to soils during common rain-on-snow conditions and a hydrologic recovery period that may require 40 years, rain-on-snow runoff is an important mechanism␣ whereby forest management activities might cumulatively affect water resources.

RAIN-ON-SNOW EVENTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES: Severity of rain on snow depends on a number of factors, and an overall decrease in these events appears to be driven, in part, by changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF RAIN-ON-SNOW: Snow melt during rainfall causes large-scale flooding and avalanching. These rain-on- snow events are most well-documented in the coastal mountain ranges of western North America. To determine what role they play in interior mountains, we analyzed flood frequencies in the Columbia River basin and modeled rain-on-snow potential from daily temperature and precipitation data. Applying the model with geographically distributed weather data allowed maps of rain-on-snow potential at 2km spatial resolution to be generated for characteristic climate years of 1982 (cold and wet), 1988 (warm and dry), and 1989 (average). It was found that rain-on-snow events are more likely during cool, wet years (such as 1982). A greater number of events and more widespread distribution of events occur during this type of climate. The cool temperatures allow low-elevation snow to accumulate and frequent storms bring the possibility of mid-winter rain. Warm, dry years (1988) are less likely to experience rain-on-snow events. There is little low-elevation snow at these times and only occasional precipitation. During all years, areas most susceptible to rain-on-snow are those where topography allows incursion of relatively warm, moist marine air that flows from the Pacific Ocean into the Columbia Plateau and up the Snake River Valley. These areas include the Cascade mountains; northern Idaho, northeastern Washington, and northwestern Montana where valleys open into the Columbia plateau; the Blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon; and western Wyoming and central Idaho adjacent to the Snake River. KEYWORDS: snow, avalanches, rain-on-snow, floods

Projections of Future Drought in the Continental United States and Mexico: Using the Palmer drought severity index, the ability of 19 state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce ob- served statistics of drought over North America is examined. It is found that correction of substantial biases in the models’ surface air temperature and precipitation fields is necessary. However, even after a bias correction, there are significant differences in the models’ ability to reproduce observations. Using metrics based on the ability to reproduce observed temporal and spatial patterns of drought, the relationship between model per- formance in simulating present-day drought characteristics and their differences in projections of future drought changes is investigated. It is found that all models project increases in future drought frequency and severity. However, using the metrics presented here to increase confidence in the multimodel projection is complicated by a correlation between models’ drought metric skill and climate sensitivity. The effect of this sampling error can be removed by changing how the projection is presented, from a projection based on a specific time interval to a projection based on a specified temperature change. This modified class of projections has reduced intermodel uncertainty and could be suitable for a wide range of climate change impacts projections.

Scientific reticence and sea level rise: I suggest that ‘scientific reticence’, in some cases, hinders communication with the public about dangers of global warming. If I am right, it is important that policy-makers recognize the potential influence of this phenomenon. Scientific reticence may be a consequence of the scientific method. Success in science depends on objective skepticism. Caution, if not reticence, has its merits. However, in a case such as ice sheet instability and sea level rise, there is a danger in excessive caution. We may rue reticence, if it serves to lock in future disasters.Barber (1961) describes a ‘resistance by scientists to scientific discovery’, with a scholarly discussion of several sources of cultural resistance.There are aspects of the phenomenon that Barber discusses in the ‘scientific reticence’ that I describe, but additional factors come into play in the case of global climate change and sea level rise.

Aerosols heat up: Solid particles suspended in the atmosphere have long played second fiddle to greenhouse gases as agents of climate change. A study of atmospheric heating over the Indian Ocean could provoke a rethink.

SPECIAL REPORT:CLIMATE OF OPPORTUNITY: Awareness about climate change is at an all-time high. Will this surge of attention translate into more jobs for climate scientists?

Climate change and the ecologist: The evidence for rapid climate change now seems overwhelming. Global temperatures are predicted to rise by up to 4 °C by 2100, with associated alterations in precipitation patterns. Assessing the consequences for biodiversity, and how they might be mitigated, is a Grand Challenge in ecology.

The velocity of climate change: The ranges of plants and animals are moving in response to recent changes in climate1. As temperatures rise, ecosystems with ‘nowhere to go’, such as mountains, are considered to be more threatened2,3. However, species survival may depend as much on keeping pace with moving climates as the climate’s ultimate per- sistence4,5. Here we present a new index of the velocity of temper- ature change (km yr21), derived from spatial gradients (6C km21) and multimodel ensemble forecasts of rates of temperature increase (6C yr21) in the twenty-first century. This index represents the instantaneous local velocity along Earth’s surface needed to maintain constant temperatures, and has a global mean of 0.42 km yr21 (A1B emission scenario). Owing to topographic effects, the velocity of temperature change is lowest in mountainous biomes such as tropical and subtropical coniferous forests (0.08kmyr21), temperate coniferous forest, and montane grass- lands. Velocities are highest in flooded grasslands (1.26 km yr21), mangroves and deserts. High velocities suggest that the climates of only 8% of global protected areas have residence times exceeding 100 years. Small protected areas exacerbate the problem in Mediterranean-type and temperate coniferous forest biomes. Large protected areas may mitigate the problem in desert biomes. These results indicate management strategies for minimizing biodiversity loss from climate change. Montane landscapes may effectively shelter many species into the next century. Elsewhere, reduced emissions, a much expanded network of protected areas6, or efforts to increase species movement may be necessary7.

Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide: In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration in- fluences the climate system through its effects on plant physi- ology1. Plant stomata generally open less widely under increased carbon dioxide concentration2, which reduces transpiration1,3–6 and thus leaves more water at the land surface7. This driver of change in the climate system, which we term ‘physiological for- cing’, has been detected in observational records of increasing average continental runoff over the twentieth century8. Here we use an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model that includes a vegetation component to assess the contribution of physiological forcing to future changes in continental runoff, in the context of uncertainties in future precipitation. We find that the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is com- parable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change (11 6 6 per cent). Assessments of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on the hydrological cycle that only consider radiative forcing9–11 will therefore tend to underestimate future increases in runoff and overestimate decreases. This sug- gests that freshwater resources may be less limited than previously assumed under scenarios of future global warming, although there is still an increased risk of drought. Moreover, our results high- light that the practice of assessing the climate-forcing potential of all greenhouse gases in terms of their radiative forcing potential relative to carbon dioxide does not accurately reflect the relative effects of different greenhouse gases on freshwater resources.

Understanding the changing hydrologic regime and storage requirements in the Upper Colorado River basin: The changing hydrologic regime of the Upper Colorado River Basin presents a daunting challenge for water resources management. A major source of concern is that of ascertaining the nature of runoff variability and re- calibrating the systemic management and planning based on a more reliable envelope of water supply variations to meet societal needs. In this letter, we examine the long-term variability and change in the Upper Colorado annual runoff volume—quantified as shifts in the mean, interannual variability, and persistence—in a recent tree-ring based reconstruction extending back to 762AD. A simple model for reservoir storage requirement shows sensitivity to the changing hydrologic regime, with episodes of abrupt shifts toward significantly higher storage requirements, often not readily evident in runoff statistics. The results also suggest that benchmarking of climate models for regional water resources assessment should focus on the runoff statistics that are most relevant for storage requirement computations.

Adapting to a Changing Climate in the Southeast: Whether it’s change to native terrestrial habitats or sea level rise and impacts to vital coastal wetlands and marshes, we are only beginning to understand what is happening across the country, what is likely to occur in the years ahead, and how our agency will act. Indeed, of the 128 national wildlife refuges in the Southeast more than half are located along the coast. The number of days per year with peak temperatures over 90F is expected to rise significantly. By the end of this century, projections indicate much of North Carolina will have 90F plus days for one-third of the year, up from less than 30 days in that temperature zone in the 1960s and 1970s. Arkansas will see 90F days for up to 150 days a year, and NorthFlorida for nearly 6 months a year.

Using Tree Rings to Predict the Response of Tree Growth to Climate Change in the Continental United States during the Twenty-First Century: In the early 1900s, tree-ring scientists began analyzing the relative widths of annual growth rings preserved in the cross sections of trees to infer past climate variations. Now, many ring-width index (RWI) chronologies, each representing a specific site and species, are archived online within the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). Comparing annual tree-ring- width data from 1097 sites in the continental United States to climate data, the authors quantitatively evaluated how trees at each site have historically re- sponded to interannual climate variations. For each site, they developed a climate-driven statistical growth equation that uses regional climate variables to model RWI values. The authors applied these growth models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change, considering four climate projections. Although caution should be taken when extrapolating past relationships with climate into the future, the authors observed several clear and interesting patterns in the growth projections that seem likely if warming continues. Most notably, the models project that productivity of dominant tree species in the southwestern United States will decrease substantially during this century, especially in warmer and drier areas. In the northwest, nonlinear growth relationships with temperature may lead to warming-induced declines in growth for many trees that historically responded positively to warmer tem- peratures. This work takes advantage of the unmatched temporal length and spatial breath of annual growth data available within the ITRDB and exem- plifies the potential of this ever-growing archive of tree-ring data to serve in meta-analyses of large-scale forest ecology. KEYWORDS: Tree rings; Climate change; Forests; United States

A phylogenetic perspective on the distribution of plant diversity: Phylogenetic studies are revealing that major ecological niches are more conserved through evolutionary history than expected, implying that adaptations to major climate changes have not readily been accomplished in all lineages. Phylogenetic niche conservatism has important consequences for the assembly of both local communities and the regional species pools from which these are drawn. If corridors for movement are available, newly emerging environments will tend to be filled by species that filter in from areas in which the relevant adaptations have already evolved, as opposed to being filled by in situ evolution of these adaptations. Examples include intercontinental disjunctions of tropical plants, the spread of plant lineages around the Northern Hemisphere after the evolution of cold tolerance, and the radiation of northern alpine plants into the Andes. These observations highlight the role of phylogenetic knowledge and historical biogeography in explanations of global biodiversity patterns. They also have implications for the future of biodiversity.

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