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The Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center's Global Change Fellows present: Disaster Recovery During a Global Pandemic
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The Global Change Fellows of the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center have congregated a multi-disciplinary panel to address how COVID-19 has affected disaster recovery and community resilience strategies. The seminar will be structured as a panel discussion among scientists and professionals from the Eastern and Western regions of the United States, and the Caribbean. They will bring their expertise and experience as they answer questions provided by the Fellows and audience members. Our panelists will explore the changes and adjustments to disaster recovery due to COVID-19 and discuss the implications for future actions on disaster recovery and community resilience.
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THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF RAIN-ON-SNOW
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Snow melt during rainfall causes large-scale flooding and avalanching. These rain-on- snow events are most well-documented in the coastal mountain ranges of western North America. To determine what role they play in interior mountains, we analyzed flood frequencies in the Columbia River basin and modeled rain-on-snow potential from daily temperature and precipitation data. Applying the model with geographically distributed weather data allowed maps of rain-on-snow potential at 2km spatial resolution to be generated for characteristic climate years of 1982 (cold and wet), 1988 (warm and dry), and 1989 (average). It was found that rain-on-snow events are more likely during cool, wet years (such as 1982). A greater number of events and more widespread distribution of events occur during this type of climate. The cool temperatures allow low-elevation snow to accumulate and frequent storms bring the possibility of mid-winter rain. Warm, dry years (1988) are less likely to experience rain-on-snow events. There is little low-elevation snow at these times and only occasional precipitation. During all years, areas most susceptible to rain-on-snow are those where topography allows incursion of relatively warm, moist marine air that flows from the Pacific Ocean into the Columbia Plateau and up the Snake River Valley. These areas include the Cascade mountains; northern Idaho, northeastern Washington, and northwestern Montana where valleys open into the Columbia plateau; the Blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon; and western Wyoming and central Idaho adjacent to the Snake River.
KEYWORDS: snow, avalanches, rain-on-snow, floods
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The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2013
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The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) coordinates observations of the most important contributors to climate change: long-lived greenhouse gases(LLGHG). In the figure, their radiative forcing (RF) is plotted along with a simple illustration of the impacts on future RF of different emission reduction scenarios. Analysis of GAW observations shows that a reduction in RF from its current level (2.92 W·m–2 in
2013)[1] requires significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions of all major greenhouse gases (GHGs).
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The Status of the World's Land and Marine Mammals: Diversity, Threat, and Knowledge
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Knowledge of mammalian diversity is still surprisingly disparate, both regionally and taxonomically. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of the conservation status and distribution of the world’s mammals. Data, compiled by 1700+ experts, cover all 5487 species, including marine mammals. Global macroecological patterns are very different for land and marine species but suggest common mechanisms driving diversity and endemism across systems. Compared with land species, threat levels are higher among marine mammals, driven by different processes (accidental mortality and pollution, rather than habitat loss), and are spatially distinct (peaking in northern oceans, rather than in Southeast Asia). Marine mammals are also disproportionately poorly known. These data are made freely available to support further scientific developments and conservation action.
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The subnivium: a deteriorating seasonal refugium
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For many terrestrial organisms in the Northern Hemisphere, winter is a period of resource scarcity and energy deficits, survivable only because a seasonal refugium – the “subnivium” – exists beneath the snow. The warmer and more stable conditions within the subnivium are principally driven by snow duration, density, and depth. In temperate regions, the subnivium is important for the overwintering success of plants and animals, yet winter conditions are changing rapidly worldwide. Throughout the Northern Hemisphere, the impacts of climate change are predicted to be most prominent during the winter months, resulting in a shorter snow season and decreased snow depth. These climatic changes will likely modify the defining qualities of the subnivium, resulting in broad-scale shifts in distributions of species that are dependent on these refugia. Resultant changes to the subnivium, however, will be spatially and temporally variable. We believe that ecologists and managers are overlooking this widespread, crucial, and vulnerable seasonal refugium, which is rapidly deteriorating due to global climate change.
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The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity
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Several states and countries have adopted targets for deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but there has been little physically realistic modeling of the energy and economic transformations required. We analyzed the infrastructure and technology path required to meet California’s goal of an 80% reduction below 1990 levels, using detailed modeling of infrastructure stocks, resource constraints, and electricity system operability. We found that technically feasible levels of energy efficiency and decarbonized energy supply alone are not sufficient; widespread electrification of transportation and other sectors is required. Decarbonized electricity would become the dominant form of energy supply, posing challenges and opportunities for economic growth and climate policy. This transformation demands technologies that are not yet commercialized, as well as coordination of investment, technology development, and infrastructure deployment.
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The temperature response of soil microbial efficiency and its feedback to climate
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Soils are the largest repository of organic carbon (C) in the terrestrial biosphere and represent an important source of carbon dioxide (CO2)totheatmosphere,releasing60–75PgC an- nually through microbial decomposition of organic materials1,2. A primary control on soil CO2 flux is the efficiency with which the microbial community uses C. Despite its critical importance to soil–atmosphere CO2 exchange, relatively few studies have examined the factors controlling soil microbial efficiency. Here, we measured the temperature response of microbial efficiency in soils amended with substrates varying in lability. We also examined the temperature sensitivity of microbial efficiency in response to chronic soil warming in situ. We find that the efficiency with which soil microorganisms use organic matter is dependent on both temperature and substrate quality, with efficiency declining with increasing temperatures for more recalcitrant substrates. However, the utilization efficiency of a more recalcitrant substrate increased at higher temperatures in soils exposed to almost two decades of warming 5 ◦ C above ambient. Our work suggests that climate warming could alter the decay dynamics of more stable organic matter compounds, thereby having a positive feedback to climate that is attenuated by a shift towards a more efficient microbial community in the longer term.
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The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War, and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe
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How did Europe escape the “Iron Law of Wages?” We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes and urbanization rates increased during the period 1350–1700. Productivity growth can only explain a small fraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics—changes of the birth and death schedules—were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population can trigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such a shock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel’s Law, demand for urban products increased, and urban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues. In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change. Wars contributed importantly to the “Rise of Europe”, even if they had negative short-run effects. We thus trace Europe’s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerent political environment and the nature of cities.
Key words: Malthus to Solow, Long-run Growth, Great Divergence, Epidemics, Demographic Regime
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The timing of climate change
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An innovative assessment of climate change calculates the year in which ongoing warming will surpass the limits of historical climate variability. Three experts explain this calculation’s significance compared with conventional approaches, and its relevance to Earth’s biodiversity.
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The use of large wood in stream restoration: experiences from 50 projects in Germany and Austria
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1. Wood is increasingly used in restoration projects to improve the hydromorphological and ecological status of streams and rivers. However, despite their growing importance, only a few of these projects are described in the open literature. To aid practitioners, we conducted a postal mail survey to summarize the experiences gained in central Europe and compile data on 50 projects.
2. Our results indicated the potential for improvement from an ecological point of view, as the number and total wood volume, and the median volume of single wood structures placed in the streams per project, were low compared with the potential natural state. Moreover, many wood structures were placed nearly parallel to the water flow, reducing their beneficial effect on stream hydraulics and morphology.
3. Restoration success has been monitored in only 58% of the projects. General con- clusions drawn include the following. (i) The potential effects of wood placement must be evaluated within a watershed and reach-scale context. (ii) Wood measures are most successful if they mimic natural wood. (iii) Effects of wood structures on stream morphology are strongly dependent on conditions such as stream size and hydrology. (iv) Wood placement has positive effects on several fish species. (v) Most projects revealed a rapid improvement of the hydromorphological status.
4. Most of the wood structures have been fixed, called ‘hard engineering’. However, soft engineering methods (use of non-fixed wood structures) are known to result in more natural channel features for individual stream types, sizes and sites, and are significantly more cost-effective.
5. Synthesis and applications. Large wood has been used successfully in several projects in central Europe, predominantly to increase the general structural complexity using fixed wood structures. Our results recommend the use of less costly soft engineering techniques (non-fixed wood structures), higher amounts of wood, larger wood struc- tures and improved monitoring programmes for future restoration projects comparable with those in this study. We recommend the use of ‘passive restoration’ methods (restor- ing the process of wood recruitment on large scales) rather than ‘active restoration’ (placement of wood structures on a reach scale), as passive restoration avoids the risk of non-natural amounts or diversity of wood loading developing within streams. Local, active placement of wood structures must be considered as an interim measure until passive restoration methods have increased recruitment sufficiently.
Key-words: alpine streams, lowland streams, monitoring, mountain streams, passive restoration, restoration success, soft-engineering, woody debris
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