-
Climate change hotspots in the United States
-
We use a multi-model, multi-scenario climate model ensemble to identify climate change hotspots in the continental United States. Our ensemble consists of the CMIP3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, along with a high-resolution nested climate modeling system. We test both high (A2) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emissions trajectories, as well as two different statistical metrics for identifying regional climate change hotspots. We find that the pattern of peak responsiveness in the CMIP3 ensemble is persistent across variations in GHG concentration, GHG trajectory, and identification method. Areas of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico are the most persistent hotspots. The high-resolution climate modeling system produces highly localized hotspots within the basic GCM structure, but with a higher sensitivity to the identification method. Across the ensemble, the pattern of relative climate change hotspots is shaped primarily by changes in interannual variability of the contributing variables rather than by changes in the long-term mean
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Climate negotiations under scientific uncertainty
-
How does uncertainty about “dangerous” climate change affect the prospects for international cooperation? Climate negotiations usually are depicted as a prisoners’ dilemma game; collectively, countries are better off reducing their emissions, but self-interest impels them to keep on emitting. We provide experimental evidence, grounded in an analytical framework, showing that the fear of crossing a dangerous threshold can turn climate negotiations into a coordination game, making collective action to avoid a dangerous threshold virtually assured. These results are robust to uncertainty about the impact of crossing a threshold, but uncertainty about the location of the threshold turns the game back into a prisoners’ dilemma, causing cooperation to collapse. Our research explains the paradox of why countries would agree to a collective goal, aimed at reducing the risk of catastrophe, but act as if they were blind to this risk.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Climate Outlook Looking Much The Same, or Even Worse
-
Climate scientists have been feverishly preparing analyses for inclusion in the fifth climate assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) due out in 2013. At the meeting, they gave colleagues a peek at where climate science stands 5 years after their last push to inform the authoritative international evaluation . The climate models are bigger and more sophisticated
than ever, speakers reported, but they are yielding the same wide range of possible warming and precipitation changes as they did 5 years ago. But when polled on other areas of concern, researchers say they see more trouble ahead than the previous IPCC assessment had, though less than some scientists had feared
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Climate Simulations for Southeast and Appalachians
-
A DOI Southeast Climate Science Center funded research project will be evaluating the latest generation of global climate models to generate scenarios of future change to climate, hydrology, and vegetation for the Southeastern U.S. as well as the entire range of the Appalachian LCC.
Located in
Research
-
Coastal habitats shield people and property from sea-level rise and storms
-
Extreme weather, sea-level rise and degraded coastal ecosystems are placing people and property at greater risk of damage from coastal hazards 1–5. The likelihood and magnitude of losses may be reduced by intact reefs and coastal vegetation 1, especially when those habitats fringe vulnerable communities and infrastructure. Using five sea-level-rise scenarios, we calculate a hazard index for every 1 km2 of the United States coastline. We use this index to identify the most vulnerable people and property as indicated by being in the upper quartile of hazard for the nation’s coastline. The number of people, poor families, elderly and total value of residential property that are most exposed to hazards can be reduced by half if existing coastal habitats remain fully intact. Coastal habitats defend the greatest number of people and total property value in Florida, New York and California. Our analyses deliver the first national map of risk reduction owing to natural habitats and indicates where conservation and restoration of reefs and vegetation have the greatest potential to protect coastal communities.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Comment: Time to Model all Life on Earth
-
To help transform our understanding of the biosphere, ecologists — like climate scientists — should simulate whole ecosystems, argue Drew Purves and colleagues. FROM THE TEXT: General circulation models, which simulatethe physics and chemistry of Earth’s land, ocean and atmosphere, embody scientists’ best understanding of how the climate system works and are crucial to making predictions and shaping policies. We think that analogous general ecosystem models (GEMs) could radically improve understanding of the biosphere and inform policy decisions about biodiversity and conservation.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Comment:Nuclear winter is a real and present danger
-
Models show that even a ‘small’ nuclear war would cause catastrophic climate change. Such findings must inform policy, says Alan Robock.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Conservation Planning Process
-
Dr. Robert Baldwin of Clemson University explains in this video the steps involved in the conservation planning process.
Located in
Resources
/
…
/
Archive GIS
/
GIS & Planning
-
Dettmers, Randy
-
I work on conservation planning (biological foundation and landscape design) for birds of conservation concern, with a focus on landbirds, as well as designing and implementing monitoring programs to track population status of such species and evaluate the success of conservation actions for these species.
Located in
Expertise Search
-
Development of a Spatially Explicit Surface Coal Mining Predictive Model
-
The goal of this project was to create a spatially explicit 1km2 grid cell model for the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (Figure 1) predicting where surface coal mining is likely to occur in in a projected future time period, under two different scenarios. To accomplish this goal we combined GIS spatial analysis, a Random Forests predictive model, and future mining buildout scenarios. This report provides a detailed methodology of our approach and discussion of our results.
Located in
Tools & Resources
/
Assessing Future Energy Development
