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Assessing the Impact of Projected Housing Density on High Priority Forest Birds
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Dr. Todd Jones-Farrand, Science Coordinator, Central Hardwoods Bird Joint Venture
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Theme: Planning and Foundational Tools to Aid in Landscape-level Partner Products and Regional Initiatives
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Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally
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It is possible that anthropogenic climate change will drive the Earth system into a qualitatively different state1. Although different types of uncertainty limit our capacity to assess this risk 2, Earth system scientists are particularly concerned about tipping elements, large-scale components of the Earth system that can be switched into qualitatively different states by small perturbations. Despite growing evidence that tipping elements exist in the climate system1,3, whether large-scale vegetation systems can tip into alternative states is poorly understood4. Here we show that tropical grassland, savanna and forest ecosystems, areas large enough to have powerful impacts on the Earth system, are likely to shift to alternative states. Specifically, we show that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration will force transitions to vegetation states characterized by higher biomass and/or woody-plant dominance. The timing of these critical transitions varies as a result of between-site variance in the rate of temperature increase, as well as a dependence on stochastic variation in fire severity and rainfall. We further show that the locations of bistable vegetation zones (zones where alternative vegetation states can exist) will shift as climate changes. We conclude that even though large-scale directional regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems are likely, asynchrony in the timing of these shifts may serve to dampen, but not nullify, the shock that these changes may represent to the Earth system.
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Climate Science Documents
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Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
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Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
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Resources
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Climate Science Documents
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Barking up the Wrong Tree? Forest Sustainability in the wake of Emerging Bioenergy Policies
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The spotted owl controversy revealed that federal forest management policies alone could not guarantee functioning forest ecosystems. At the same time as the owl’s listing, agreements made at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit highlighted the mounting pressures on natural systems, thus unofficially marking the advent of sustainable forestry management (SFM).2 While threats to forest ecosystems from traditional logging practices certainly remain,3 developed and developing countries have shifted generally toward more sustainable forest management, at least on paper, including codifying various sustainability indicators in public laws.4 Nevertheless, dark policy clouds are gathering on the forest management horizon. Scientific consensus has grown in recent years around a new and arguably more onerous threat to all of the world’s ecosystems—climate change. Governments’ responses have focused on bioenergy policies aimed
at curtailing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and mandatesfor renewables in energy supplies now abound worldwide.
[Vol. 37:000
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Climate Science Documents
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Beneficial Biofuels—The Food, Energy, and Environment Trilemma
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Exploiting multiple feedstocks, under new policies and accounting rules, to balance biofuel production, food security, and greenhouse-gas reduction.
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Resources
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Climate Science Documents
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Best Management Practices for Golden-winged Warbler Habitats in the Appalachian Region: A Guide for Land Managers and Landowners
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This guide is intended to provide land managers and landowners with regional, habitat-specific strategies and techniques to begin developing and restoring habitat for Golden-winged Warblers. This document includes general information that applies to all habitat types in the Appalachian region and should be used along with supplemental documents dedicated to the management of specific regional habitat types (deciduous forests, minelands, abandoned farmlands, grazed forestland/montane pastures, utility rights-of-way, forest and shrub wetlands) most important to Golden-winged Warblers.
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Information Materials
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Fact Sheets
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Golden-Winged Warbler Appalachians Fact Sheets
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Best Management Practices for Golden-winged Warbler Habitat on Grazed Forestland and Montane Pastures in the Appalachians
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This is a supplemental document that provides information on managing grazed forestland and montane pastures in the Appalachians to develop and restore habitat for Golden-winged Warblers. This guide should be used in conjunction with the Best Management Practices for Golden-winged Warbler Habitats in the Appalachian Region, which includes general information that applies to all habitat types in the Appalachian region.
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Information Materials
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Fact Sheets
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Golden-Winged Warbler Appalachians Fact Sheets
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Bias in the attribution of forest carbon sinks
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A substantial fraction of the terrestrial carbon sink, past and present, may be incorrectly attributed to environmental change rather than changes in forest management.
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Resources
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Climate Science Documents
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Biodiversity in a Warmer World
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A new framework helps to understand how species ranges change under global warming.
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Resources
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Climate Science Documents
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Butler, Patricia
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Coordinator, Climate Change Response Framework
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