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Effect of Risk Aversion on Prioritizing Conservation Projects
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Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker’s aversion to risk—their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance-discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand’s threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers’ risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources.
Keywords: conservation decisionmaking,cost-effectiveness analysis, management effectiveness,Project Prioritization Protocol, risk analysis, risk tolerance, threatened species, uncertainty
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Effects of Management on Carbon Sequestration in Forest Biomass in Southeast Alaska
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The Tongass National Forest (Tongass) is the largest national forest and largest area of old-growth forest in the United States. Spatial geographic informa- tion system data for the Tongass were combined with forest inventory data to estimate and map total carbon stock in the Tongass; the result was 2.8±0.5PgC,or8%of the total carbon in the forests of the conterminous USA and 0.25% of the carbon in global forest vegetation and soils. Cumulative net carbon loss from the Tongass due to management of the forest for the period 1900–95 was estimated at 6.4–17.2 Tg C. Using our spatially explicit data for carbon stock and net flux, we modeled the potential effect of five management regimes on future net carbon flux. Estimates of net carbon flux were sensitive to projections of the rate of carbon accumulation in second-growth forests and to the amount of carbon left in standing biomass after harvest. Projections of net carbon flux in the Tongass range from 0.33 Tg C annual sequestration to 2.3 Tg C annual emission for the period 1995–2095. For the period 1995–2195, net flux estimates range from 0.19 Tg C annual sequestra- tion to 1.6 Tg C annual emission. If all timber harvesting in the Tongass were halted from 1995 to 2095, the economic value of the net carbon sequestered during the 100-year hiatus, assuming $20/Mg C, would be $4 to $7 million/y (1995 US dollars). If a prohibition on logging were extended to 2195, the annual economic value of the carbon sequestered would be largely unaffected ($3 to $6 million/y). The potential annual economic value of carbon sequestration with management maxi- mizing carbon storage in the Tongass is comparable to revenue from annual timber sales historically authorized for the forest.
Key words: carbon sequestration; geographic information system; climate change; forest management; Alaska.
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Enhancing the Climate Resilience of America’s Natural Resources
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The President's Climate and Natural Resources Priority Agenda is the result of an interagency process to inventory and assess current policies, programs, and regulations related to climate change adaptation. The Agenda builds upon the robust climate change adaptation work already accomplished by Federal agencies and identifies significant actions moving forward. It specifically mentions how Federal agencies working to address ecosystem management issues through LCCs and other multi-stakeholder bodies will work with partners to select flagship geographic regions for which they will identify priority areas for conservation, restoration, or other investments to build resilience in vulnerable regions, enhance carbon storage capacity, and support management needs. Within 24 months, these agencies and their partners will have identified and mapped the initial list of priority areas within each of the selected geographic landscapes or regions.
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Environmental Protection Agency
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EPA's purpose is to ensure that all Americans are protected from significant risks to human health and the environment where they live, learn and work; national efforts to reduce environmental risk are based on the best available scientific information; federal laws protecting human health and the environment are enforced fairly and effectively; all parts of society -- communities, individuals, businesses, and state, local and tribal governments -- have access to accurate information sufficient to effectively participate in managing human health and environmental risks; and the United States plays a leadership role in working with other nations to protect the global environment.
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Executive Order -- Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change
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President Obama signed an executive order that will begin to prepare the Nation for the impacts of climate change by undertaking actions to enhance climate preparedness and resilience.
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Federal Agencies
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Federal Non_DOI Research Facilities/Programs
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Other Federal facilities and programs beyond DOI.
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Introduction to the Appalachian LCC
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Federal Research Capacity within the AppLCC
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Federal/private partnership brings in 4-to-1 taxpayer returns for conservation
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The USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation partnership created $40.5 million out of an initial $10.3 million taxpayer investment in 2011 for on-the-ground conservation efforts throughout the United States.
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Fish and Wildlife Service Releases Eagle Conservation Plan Guidance
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The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service released Eagle Conservation Plan Guidance to provide
a pathway for the responsible development of wind energy that fosters protection for bald and
golden eagles.
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Fish and Wildlife Service, Kentucky Division of Forestry Sign Agreement Protecting Indiana Bats on State Forests
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The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet, Division of Forestry announce entering into an agreement to promote the survival, conservation, and recovery of the federally endangered Indiana bat on state forests within the Commonwealth of Kentucky.
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