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Aquatic Ecological Flows Phase 1 Report
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The 1st phase of the Aquatic Ecological Flows project involved reviewing existing tools and gathering available data within the project area on hydrologic and ecological flow model(s) that would be suitable for the region. This Report details that work.
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Deliverables
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Aquatic Ecological Flows Project Update
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This presentation from Dr. Todd Walter of Cornell University provides an update to the Steering Committee on the Appalachian LCC funded research project. The Aquatic Ecological Flows project is providing a report assessing availability of hydrologic and ecological flow model(s) suitable for the region, a georeference assessment of available ecological data to inform the ecological flow model(s), the application of the model(s) to anticipate how altered flow regimes will affect critical conditions, and a report that forecasts changes in hydrology and associated predicted biological responses in relation to different water resource development scenarios for critical watersheds.
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Past SC Meetings and Materials
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Steering Committee Call 3/6/14
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Assemblage Time Series Reveal Biodiversity Change but Not Systematic Loss
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The extent to which biodiversity change in local assemblages contributes to global biodiversity
loss is poorly understood. We analyzed 100 time series from biomes across Earth to ask how diversity
within assemblages is changing through time. We quantified patterns of temporal a diversity, measured
as change in local diversity, and temporal b diversity, measured as change in community composition.
Contrary to our expectations, we did not detect systematic loss of a diversity. However, community
composition changed systematically through time, in excess of predictions from null models.
Heterogeneous rates of environmental change, species range shifts associated with climate change,
and biotic homogenization may explain the different patterns of temporal a and b diversity.
Monitoring and understanding change in species composition should be a conservation priority.
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Climate Science Documents
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Assessing Future Energy Development Across the Appalachians
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Assessing Future Energy Development across the Appalachian LCC used models that combined data on energy development trends and identified where these may intersect with important natural resource and ecosystem services to give a more comprehensive picture of what potential energy development could look like in the Appalachians. Ultimately this information is intended to support dialogue and conservation on how to effectively avoid, minimize, and offset impacts from energy development to important natural areas and the valuable services they provide.
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Biodiversity and Climate Change
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Efforts to elucidate the effect of climate change on biodiversity with detailed data sets and refined models reach novel conclusions.
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Climate Science Documents
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Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges
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Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.
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Breaking Traditional Barriers to Model Climate Change and Land Use Impacts on Freshwater Mussels
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Thomas Kwak, Leader of the U.S. Geological Survey North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit and Professor of Biology, North Carolina State University, will give a presentation on global declines in the abundance and diversity of freshwater mussels that have been attributed to a wide array of human activities that cause pollution, water-quality degradation, and habitat destruction.
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News & Events
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Events
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Can Landscape-scale Management Influence Insect Outbreak Dynamics
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We hypothesized that landscape connectivity of host tree species increases forest susceptibility to insect pest damage. We evaluated this hypothesis for spruce budworm within a 6 million hectare “experimental” landscape at the international border between the Midwestern US and Canada, containing wilderness plus two contrasting harvest patterns (coarse vs. fine).
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News & Events
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Events
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CARBON CYCLE : Fertilizing change
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Carbon cycle–climate feedbacks are expected to diminish the size of the terrestrial carbon sink over the next century. Model simulations suggest that nitrogen availability is likely to play a key role in mediating this response.
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Climate Science Documents
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Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities for Global Health
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Editorial: Journal of the American Medical Association. Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaledclimate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We searched PubMed from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climate Data Center. By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; and respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by fine particulate pollutants, such as asthma and allergic disorders; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and water-borne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic co-benefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, the cost of greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US carbon policies. Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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