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A paradigm shift in understanding and quantifying the effects of forest harvesting on floods in snow environments
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A well-established precept in forest hydrology is that any reduction of forest cover will always have a progressively smaller effect on floods with increasing return period. The underlying logic in snow environments is that during the largest snowmelt events the soils and vegetation canopy have little additional storage capacity and under these conditions much of the snowmelt will be converted to runoff regardless of the amount or type of vegetation cover. Here we show how this preconceived physical understanding, reinforced by the outcomes of numerous paired watershed studies, is indefensible because it is rationalized outside the flood frequency distribution framework. We conduct a meta-analysis of postharvest data at four catchments (3–37 km2) with moderate level of harvesting (33%–40%) to demonstrate how harvesting increases the magnitude and frequency of all floods on record (19–99 years) and how such effects can increase unchecked with increasing return period as a consequence of changes to both the mean (þ11% to þ35%) and standard deviation (12% to þ19%) of the flood frequency distribution. We illustrate how forest harvesting has substantially increased the frequency of the largest floods in all study sites regardless of record length and this also runs counter to the prevailing wisdom in hydrological science. The dominant process responsible for these newly emerging insights is the increase in net radiation associated with the conversion from longwave-dominated snowmelt beneath the canopy to shortwave-dominated snowmelt in harvested areas, further amplified or mitigated by basin characteristics such as aspect distribution, elevation range, slope gradient, amount of alpine area, canopy closure, and drainage density. Investigating first order environmental controls on flood frequency distributions, a standard research method in stochastic hydrology, represents a paradigm shift in the way harvesting effects are physically explained and quantified in forest hydrology literature.
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CO2 emissions from forest loss
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Deforestation is the second largest anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, after fossil fuel combustion. Following a budget reanalysis, the contribution from deforestation is revised downwards, but tropical peatlands emerge as a notable carbon dioxide source.
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Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
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Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
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Rhode Island Woodland Partnership
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The Rhode Island Woodland Partnership (RIWP) advances the stewardship and long-term protection of Rhode Island’s woodlands to benefit the local economy, ecological values, and community enjoyment and health. The RIWP strives to increase the impact of forest conservation measures through education and information sharing.
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A large source of low-volatility secondary organic aerosol
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Forests emit large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere. Their condensable oxidation products can form secondary organic aerosol, a significant and ubiquitous component of atmospheric aerosol 1,2, which is known to affect the Earth’s radiation balance by scattering solar radiation and by acting as cloud condensation nuclei 3. The quantitative assessment of such climate effects remains hampered by a number of factors, including an incom- plete understanding of how biogenic VOCs contribute to the formation of atmospheric secondary organic aerosol. The growth of newly formed particles from sizes of less than three nanometres up to the sizes of cloud condensation nuclei (about one hundred nanometres) in many continental ecosystems requires abundant, essentially non- volatile organic vapours4–6, but the sources and compositions of such vapours remain unknown. Here we investigate the oxidation of VOCs, in particular the terpene a-pinene, under atmospherically relevant conditions in chamber experiments. We find that a direct pathway leads from several biogenic VOCs, such as monoterpenes, to the for- mation of large amounts of extremely low-volatility vapours. These vapours form at significant mass yield in the gas phase and condense irreversibly onto aerosol surfaces to produce secondary organic aero- sol, helping to explain the discrepancy between the observed atmo- spheric burden of secondary organic aerosol and that reported by many model studies2. We further demonstrate how these low-volatility vapours can enhance, or even dominate, the formation and growth of aerosol particles over forested regions, providing a missing link between biogenic VOCs and their conversion to aerosol particles. Our findings could help to improve assessments of biosphere–aerosol– climate feedback mechanisms 6–8, and the air quality and climate effects of biogenic emissions generally.
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Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally
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It is possible that anthropogenic climate change will drive the Earth system into a qualitatively different state1. Although different types of uncertainty limit our capacity to assess this risk 2, Earth system scientists are particularly concerned about tipping elements, large-scale components of the Earth system that can be switched into qualitatively different states by small perturbations. Despite growing evidence that tipping elements exist in the climate system1,3, whether large-scale vegetation systems can tip into alternative states is poorly understood4. Here we show that tropical grassland, savanna and forest ecosystems, areas large enough to have powerful impacts on the Earth system, are likely to shift to alternative states. Specifically, we show that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration will force transitions to vegetation states characterized by higher biomass and/or woody-plant dominance. The timing of these critical transitions varies as a result of between-site variance in the rate of temperature increase, as well as a dependence on stochastic variation in fire severity and rainfall. We further show that the locations of bistable vegetation zones (zones where alternative vegetation states can exist) will shift as climate changes. We conclude that even though large-scale directional regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems are likely, asynchrony in the timing of these shifts may serve to dampen, but not nullify, the shock that these changes may represent to the Earth system.
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Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress
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Forests provide innumerable ecological, societal and climatological benefits, yet they are vulnerable to drought and temperature extremes. Climate-driven forest die-off from drought and heat stress has occurred around the world, is expected to increase with climate change and probably has distinct consequences from those of other forest disturbances. We examine the consequences of drought- and climate-driven widespread forest loss on ecological communities, ecosystem functions, ecosystem services and land–climate interactions. Furthermore, we highlight research gaps that warrant study. As the global climate continues to warm, understanding the implications of forest loss triggered by these events will be of increasing importance.
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A drought-induced pervasive increase in tree mortality across Canada’s boreal forests
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Drought-induced tree mortality is expected to increase worldwide under projected future climate changes (1–4). The Canadian boreal forests, which occupy about 30% of the boreal forests worldwide and 77% of Canada’s total forested land, play a critical role in the albedo of Earth’s surface (5) and in its global carbon budget (6). Many of the previously reported regional-scale impacts of drought on tree mortality have affected low- and middle-latitude tropical regions (2) and the temperate forests of the western United States (3), but no study has examined high-latitude boreal regions with multiple species at a regional scale using long-term forest permanent sampling plots (7–9). Here, we estimated tree mortality in natural stands throughout Canada’s boreal forests using data from the permanent sampling plots and statistical models. We found that tree mortality rates increased by an overall average of 4.7%yr−1 from 1963 to 2008, with higher mortality rate increases in western regions than in eastern regions (about 4.9 and 1.9% yr−1 ,respectively).The water stress created by regional drought may be the dominant contributor to these widespread increases in tree mortality rates across tree species, sizes, elevations, longitudes and latitudes. Western Canada seems to have been more sensitive to drought than eastern Canada.
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Continuous flux of dissolved black carbon from a vanished tropical forest biome
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Humans have used fire extensively as a tool to shape Earth’s vegetation. The slash-and-burn destruction of Brazil’s Atlantic forest, which once covered over 1.3 million km2 of present-day Brazil and was one of the largest tropical forest biomes on Earth1, is a prime example. Here, we estimate the amount of black carbon generated by the burning of the Atlantic forest, using historical records of land cover, satellite data and black carbon conversion ratios. We estimate that before 1973, destruction of the Atlantic forest generated 200–500 million tons of black carbon. We then estimate the amount of black carbon exported from this relict forest between 1997 and 2008, using measurements of polycyclic aromatic black carbon collected from a large river draining the region, and a continuous record of river discharge. We show that dissolved black carbon (DBC) continues to be mobilized from the watershed each year in the rainy season, despite the fact that widespread forest burning ceased in 1973. We estimate that the river exports 2,700 tons of DBC to the ocean each year. Scaling our findings up, we estimate that 50,000–70,000 tons of DBC are exported from the former forest each year. We suggest that an increase in black carbon production on land could increase the size of the refractory pool of dissolved organic carbon in the deep ocean.
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Elevation-dependent influence of snow accumulation on forest greening
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Rising temperatures and declining water availability have influenced the ecological function of mountain forests over the past half-century. For instance, warming in spring and summer and shifts towards earlier snowmelt are associated with an increase in wildfire activity and tree mortality in mountain forests in the western United States (1,2). Temperature increases are expected to continue during the twenty-first century in mountain ecosystems across the globe (3,4), with uncertain consequences. Here, we examine the influence of interannual variations in snowpack accumulation on forest greenness in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California, between 1982 and 2006. Using observational records of snow accumulation and satellite data on vegetation greenness we show that vegetation greenness increases with snow accumulation. Indeed, we show that variations in maximum snow accumulation explain over 50% of the interannual variability in peak forest greenness across the Sierra Nevada region. The extent to which snow accumulation can explain variations in greenness varies with elevation, reaching a maximum in the water-limited mid- elevations, between 2,000 and 2,600 m. In situ measurements of carbon uptake and snow accumulation along an elevational transect in the region confirm the elevation dependence of this relationship. We suggest that mid-elevation mountain forest ecosystems could prove particularly sensitive to future increases in temperature and concurrent changes in snow accumulation and melt.
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